Challenge 16: Merlin's Apprentice

Merlin was an Arthurian wizard, who could use his sorceries to know the past, present, and future. As a mentor to King Arthur, Merlin could identify threats to the kingdom before they became issues, and knew the people of Camelot well enough to guide the king's actions. However even Merlin could not count on living forever (or not getting entombed for all eternity) and so he set out to find an apprentice with his set of skills.

In this challenge, you will be tested on your ability to know the public. Here's how it works: This challenge will take place in two 24 hour phases. In phase 1, each of you will be given three different questions in your challenge submission thread, and asked to estimate what percent (out of 100) of respondents answered in a given way. Your guesses must be whole numbers between 0 and 100.  The given survey was conducted by Monty in 2019, and responses were accepted from August 24, 2019, to August 28, 2019. Over 100 people responded to the survey, across a variety of demographics.

In phase 2, you will all see how everyone else responded, and must figure out how accurate you think their guesses are. You'll do this by deciding if the CORRECT answer is higher or lower than the estimated answer. If you wish to take on additional risk, you can say that the CORRECT answer is MUCH higher (15 percent or more higher) or MUCH lower (15 percent or more lower) than the estimated answer. 

In addition, phase 2 will feature two additional questions, each with nine answers. Your goal will be to select the three answers, among the nine, with the highest number of respondents selecting that answer. 

Scoring will works as follows:



At the end of Phase 2, the player who accumulates the most points will be declared Merlin's apprentice and win immunity! To preclude the event of a tie, we've included a tiebreaker question. EACH player will submit a guess, out to one decimal place, for that question. If there is a tie in points, the closest player to the correct percentage without going over will win immunity. In the event of a further tie, the player with the smallest cumulative difference between their estimates and the CORRECT answers in their first three questions will win immunity. In the event of a further tie, the player who correctly answered MUCH higher or MUCH lower the most will win immunity. 


Time Expectations: You may take as long as you'd like to consider your responses.
Communication: Discussion about this challenge is not allowed.